Objectives (5 - 7 minutes)

1. The teacher will introduce the concept of Basic Probability, explaining that it is a branch of mathematics that deals with the likelihood of an event occurring.
2. The teacher will highlight the importance of Basic Probability in everyday life, such as predicting the weather, making business decisions, or understanding sports statistics.
3. The students will be informed of the lesson's learning objectives, which are:
   1. Understand the basic terms and concepts of probability.
   2. Learn how to calculate the probability of simple events.
   3. Apply the acquired knowledge to solve practical problems related to probability.

Secondary Objectives:

1. Encourage group work and collaboration among students during the activities.
2. Enhance critical thinking and problem-solving skills through hands-on exercises.
3. Foster a positive attitude towards mathematics and its real-world applications.

Introduction (8 - 10 minutes)

1. The teacher will start the lesson by reminding the students of the concepts of chance and likelihood they have learned in previous lessons, emphasizing how these concepts are related to the new topic of Basic Probability. (2 minutes)

2. The teacher will present two problem situations to spark the students' interest and curiosity:

   1. Problem 1: The teacher will ask the students to imagine they are flipping a fair coin. What is the probability of getting heads? The teacher will then ask, if the students were to flip the coin 10 times, would they expect to get 5 heads and 5 tails? Why or why not?
   2. Problem 2: The teacher will ask the students to imagine they are rolling a fair six-sided die. What is the probability of rolling a 3? The teacher will then ask, if the students were to roll the die 60 times, would they expect to get 10 threes? Why or why not? (3 minutes)

3. The teacher will contextualize the importance of Basic Probability by discussing real-world applications:

   1. Application 1: The teacher will explain how meteorologists use probability to predict the weather. They might say, "If there is a 70% chance of rain tomorrow, how likely is it that you will need an umbrella?"
   2. Application 2: The teacher will explain how businesses use probability to make decisions. They might say, "If a store has a 30% chance of selling out of a product by the end of the day, how many should they stock to be sure they have enough but not too many?" (2 minutes)

4. The teacher will introduce the topic of Basic Probability, capturing the students' attention with interesting facts and stories:

   1. Fact 1: The teacher will share that the concept of probability dates back to at least the 17th century, when it was first studied by mathematicians like Blaise Pascal and Pierre de Fermat. They might say, "These guys were so into probability that they even came up with what's now known as Pascal's Triangle, a nifty tool for calculating probability."
   2. Fact 2: The teacher will share that probability is used in a wide variety of fields, from gambling and insurance to physics and computer science. They might say, "In fact, if you've ever played a video game, you've encountered probability. When the game 'rolls' to see if you get a rare item, it's using probability!" (3 minutes)

Development (20 - 25 minutes)

Activity 1: The Probability of a Coin Toss (7 - 10 minutes)

1. The teacher will hand out a fair coin to each group of students. They will be instructed to toss the coin 20 times and record the outcomes (heads or tails) on a table provided by the teacher. (3 minutes)
2. After collecting the data, the teacher will guide the students in calculating the actual probability of getting heads or tails based on their results. This will be done by dividing the number of times they got heads (or tails) by the total number of tosses. (2 minutes)
3. The teacher will then ask the students to compare their calculated probabilities with the theoretical probability. Theoretical probability, in this case, is 0.5 or 50% for both heads and tails as it is a fair coin. This will help the students understand the difference between the theoretical and the experimental probability. (2 minutes)
4. In a group discussion, the teacher will guide the students in understanding any discrepancies between the calculated and theoretical probabilities. This will serve as a reinforcement of the concept that probability is not always the same as the expected outcome. (2 minutes)

Activity 2: The Probability of a Die Roll (7 - 10 minutes)

1. The teacher will hand out a fair six-sided die to each group of students. They will be instructed to roll the die 60 times and record the outcomes (numbers 1-6) on a table provided by the teacher. (3 minutes)
2. After collecting the data, the teacher will guide the students in calculating the actual probability of rolling each number based on their results. This will be done by dividing the number of times each number appeared by the total number of rolls. (2 minutes)
3. The teacher will then ask the students to compare their calculated probabilities with the theoretical probability. Theoretical probability, in this case, is 1/6 or approximately 0.17 for each number. (2 minutes)
4. In a group discussion, the teacher will guide the students in understanding any discrepancies between the calculated and theoretical probabilities. This will reinforce the concept that the more times an event occurs, the closer the experimental probability is to the theoretical probability. (2 minutes)

Activity 3: Probability Games (6 - 8 minutes)

1. The teacher will provide each group with a set of probability cards. Each card will have a different event (e.g., rolling a certain number on a die, picking a certain color from a bag of colored balls) and a corresponding probability. (2 minutes)
2. The students will play a memory game where they have to match the events with their corresponding probabilities. This game will help them to associate different events with their likelihood, reinforcing the concept of probability. (2 minutes)
3. The teacher will then ask the students to create their own probability cards, with different events and probabilities. This will involve them in the process of calculating probabilities, encouraging creativity and deep understanding of the concept. (2 minutes)
4. To finish, the groups will exchange cards and test their peers' cards, seeing if they can correctly calculate the probabilities. This will foster a fun and interactive learning environment. (2 minutes)

Conclusion of the Development Stage (2 - 3 minutes)

1. The teacher will gather the students' attention and conduct a short recap of the activities they just performed, emphasizing the important concepts they learned about Basic Probability. (1 minute)
2. The teacher will ask the students to reflect on the activities and discuss in their groups what they found most interesting or challenging. This will allow the students to consolidate their learning and express any remaining questions or uncertainties. (1 minute)
3. The teacher will then address any common questions or misconceptions, ensuring that all students have a clear understanding of Basic Probability. (1 minute)

Feedback (5 - 7 minutes)

1. The teacher will guide a group discussion where each group will be given a chance to share their solutions, conclusions, and any difficulties they faced during the activities. This discussion will help to foster a sense of community and collaboration among the students. (3 minutes)
2. The teacher will assess the students' understanding of Basic Probability by asking them to explain in their own words the concept of probability, the difference between theoretical and experimental probability, and how to calculate the probability of simple events. The teacher will also ask the students to provide examples of where they might encounter probability in real life. (2 minutes)
3. The teacher will then ask the students to take a few moments to reflect on what they have learned in the lesson. They will be asked to think about the most important concept they learned, any questions that remain unanswered, and how they can apply the knowledge of Basic Probability in real life. (1 minute)
4. The teacher will collect the students' reflections and use them to gauge the effectiveness of the lesson and to plan for any necessary follow-up or review. This feedback will provide valuable insights into the students' learning process and will help to improve future lessons. (1 minute)
5. Finally, the teacher will encourage the students to always be aware of the presence of probability in their daily lives and to continue exploring and learning about this fascinating field of mathematics. (1 minute)

Conclusion (5 - 7 minutes)

1. The teacher will summarize the key points of the lesson, reinforcing the main concepts of Basic Probability. They will remind students of the definition of Basic Probability, the difference between theoretical and experimental probability, and how to calculate the probability of simple events. (2 minutes)

2. The teacher will then explain how the lesson connected theory, practice, and real-world applications. They will highlight how the hands-on activities of flipping a coin and rolling a die helped the students understand the practical aspect of calculating probabilities. The teacher will also mention how the discussions about predicting the weather, making business decisions, and playing video games demonstrated the real-world applications of Basic Probability. (2 minutes)

3. The teacher will suggest additional materials for students who wish to delve deeper into the subject. They might recommend online tutorials or games that offer more advanced probability problems. They could also suggest books or documentaries about the history and applications of probability. (1 minute)

4. The teacher will then explain the importance of Basic Probability in everyday life. They will stress that probability is not just an abstract mathematical concept, but a tool that can help us make informed decisions and predictions. They might say, "Knowing how to calculate probabilities can help you decide whether to take an umbrella to school, or if a store should stock up on a popular toy before the holidays. It can also help you understand the odds in a game or the predictions in a weather report." (1 minute)

5. Finally, the teacher will encourage the students to continue exploring the world of probability, reassuring them that it is a fascinating and important field of study. They might say, "Probability is everywhere around us, and the more we understand it, the better equipped we are to make sense of the world. So, keep an eye out for those probabilities, and don't be afraid to take a chance!" (1 minute)